“The future ain’t what it used to be”
– Yogi Berra
“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”
– Yogi Berra
“The future is already here, it just isn’t very well distributed”
– William Gibson
“The job of science is not to predict the future but to explore possible futures
and describe their potential consequences”
-Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC)
- What are the forces that will create change in the future?
- Who are the people creating narratives of the future?
- How can we design for a world we want in a future shaped by forces we can’t predict or control?
4:30-5:00 EST Student dyads interview each other: What are your reactions, thoughts, questions about WBCSD and other future visioning organizations and their work? How can designers use/contribute to long horizon vision scenarios? How would you make the Vision 2050, the Pathways Map & other WBCSD tools and the work of the other organizations more useful/usable to accelerate & scale diffusion, acceptance, adoption/execution? Make a concept map: What we like, don’t like, question, would change, agree with, disagree with, don’t understand, want to know more about.
5:00-5:30 EST Dyads present their concept maps (10×3) Post concept maps on the wall.
5:30-6:00 EST AW presents Redesigning Singapore & Design2050, case examples of design-driven future vision scenarios. REDESIGNING SINGAPORE
6:15-6:30 EST Student dyads interview each other: What are your reactions, thoughts, questions about Redesigning Singapore & Design2050. Contrast & Compare to other future visioning organizations and their work. How can designers use/contribute to long horizon vision scenarios like these? How would you make the Redesigning Singapore & Design2050 more useful/usable to accelerate & scale diffusion, acceptance, adoption/execution? How would you use these methods of approach in your own work? Make a concept map: What we like, don’t like, question, would change, agree with, disagree with, don’t understand, want to know more about
6:30-7:00 EST Dyads present their concept maps. All discuss, compare, contrast, evaluate the various types of scenarios. Post concept maps on wall.
7:00 EST PS Assigns Teams and Presents assignment 3 + CLASS DISCUSSES. All general discussion about the course, student expectations, questions, concerns
7:20 EST CLASS END
REFERENCE & RESOURCES For further exploration TBD
STUDENT-CENTERED OUTCOMES: Measurable or Observable Knowledge, Skills, Attributes, Ability to Apply, Interpret, Create, Design, Explain, etc.
ASSIGNMENT 3 – A
Students view online, browse & download the following references:
Prepare to discuss in class:
- All Teams prepare to explain/discuss readings 1,2, 3, 4
- Team 1 also prepare to explain/discuss readings 5. 6
- Team 2 also prepare to explain/discuss readings 7, 8
- Team 3 also prepare to explain/discuss readings 9, 10
REFERENCES FOR PLANPGH:
(2)- PITTSBURGH NAMED MOST LIVABLE CITY AGAIN http://bit.ly/1azzPIb
(3)- PITTSBURGH TODAY: http://www.pittsburghtoday.org
(6) CMU PGH Neighborhood Data Mapping Project http://www.fastcodesign.com/1669554/a-map-of-your-city-s-invisible-neighborhoods-according-to-foursquare
(9)- EAST LIBERTY COMMUNITY PLAN
(10)- PITTSBURGH -THE MOVIE: http://bit.ly/15vEB88
(11)- OPTIONAL: NULLSPACE BLOG by Chris Briem, U. PITT Urban Data Analyst, http://nullspace2.blogspot.com http://www.urbanophile.com/2012/06/30/misreferencing-misoverestimated-population-by-chris-briem/
Prepare to discuss:
What are your reactions, thoughts, questions about PLANPGH and the other sources. Compare & contrast with Vision 2050, the Pathways Map & other WBCSD tools, other strategic future scenarios and design visioning scenarios. How would you make PLANPGH more useful/usable to accelerate & scale diffusion, acceptance, adoption/execution.
ASSIGNMENT 3-B: METROPOLITAN REVOLUTION:
All Teams prepare to explain/discuss reading 1
Team 1 also prepare to explain/discuss reading 2
Team 2 also prepare to explain/discuss reading 3
Team 3 also prepare to explain/discuss reading 4
(1)- HOW CITIES WILL DRIVE GLOBAL CHANGE: watch-a-fascinating-short-film-on-how-cities-will-drive-global-change Video http://bit.ly/1dLU5rN
(4)- 2057-The City-Episode 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3gumT0i9mo Browse other playlist videos in this Discovery Channel series
OPTIONAL REFERENCE & RESOURCES for further exploration: THE MILLENNIAL TRAINS PROJECT
MILLENNIAL TRAINS PROJECT HOPES TO INSPIRE A NATION OF TINKERERS http://www.cnbc.com/id/100831807
MILLENNIALS ARE THE NEW PIONEERS: PATRICK DOWD BLOG http://www.huffingtonpost.com/patrick-dowd/millennials-are-the-new-p_b_3312971.html
VIDEO INTERVIEW WITH PATRICK DOWD http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAtmibAcrec
THE MILLENNIAL TRAINS PROJECT STOPS IN PITTSBURGH https://www.facebook.com/events/308895432589794/
PITTSBURGH MEETUPS COAST TO COAST: http://iheartpgh.com/2013/08/06/millennial-trains-project-update/
ASSIGNMENT 3 – C: Students take KOLB LEARNING STYLE INVENTORY @ LINK TBD
Be prepared to discuss outcomes, concerns, questions.
“I want to drive my private car. Why should I be forced to take public transportation!”
At the last class, Alan raised a concern that I don’t think we gave proper attention to. He said that the Life 2050 scenarios by Collective Invention say that everybody will have to use public transportation. He doesn’t want to have be forced to do that. He wants to drive his private car if that’s what he prefers.
My reply to Alan’s statement was somewhat defensive. I gave a mini-lecture about public transportation. In that exchange, Alan and I were illustrating the central issue upon which all scenarios for the future must turn. That issue is how can Alan and I design a future where his views and mine are understood, respected and served. The issue is how we strike the best balance between individual liberty and freedom of choice vs the well being of society at large and the collective commons – between the privileges of the few and the needs of the many – between self interest vs public interest. The story of civilization has been and always will be the dynamic tension between these poles. History tells us that when things skew too far in either direction: anarchy on one hand or dictatorial conformity on the other, there ensues social unrest, economic upheaval and political disruption – even war. If we think about the future as designers, then we have to explore innovative ways to respond to Alan’s legitimate needs. To do that we need vision goals to use as constraint criteria. Then we have to define solutions that serve a range of preferences. For example, if we say that Life in 2050 has to deliver health, learning, justice, equity, creative opportunity and sustainable prosperity, then those are our constraining criteria for successful life. And that means that we have to understand what those ideas mean for the full spectrum of differential needs, wants and preferences of all the people on the planet. If our planet had inexhaustible resources and infinitely adaptive atmosphere, topsoil and oceans then maybe we could accommodate every individual’s preferences without limitation. We live as if that were the case despite evidence to the contrary. The design question is how shall we design successful life for all in the world as it is.
World Footprint: Do we fit on the planet?
Today humanity uses the equivalent of 1.5 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste. This means it now takes the Earth one year and six months to regenerate what we use in a year. Moderate UN scenarios suggest that if current population and consumption trends continue, by the 2030s, we will need the equivalent of two Earths to support us. And of course, we only have one. Turning resources into waste faster than waste can be turned back into resources puts us in global ecological overshoot, depleting the very resources on which human life and biodiversity depend. – Global Footprint Network: http://bit.ly/1dDeEpj
Here is one response to the concerns raised by Alan Herman. That is to tackle the question of how we can accommodate differential individual lifestyles and still attain sustainable prosperity for all. Collective Invention has been working with the EUs Centre for Sustainable Production and Consumption to build a global platform and network for Sustainable Lifestyle. Here is the statement of purpose (CLICK ON IMAGE TO OPEN PDF):
A Global Network and Platform: We are a global platform and network of partners that come together around the joint commitment to enabling more sustainable lifestyles. The Sustainable Lifestyles Network and Global Platform seeks to inspire decision-makers, stakeholders and the public to think diff -erently about how to enable more sustainable ways of living. Co-creating new stories of our sustainable future, envisioning and designing the future we want are central to this work. We believe that visualizing possible futures helps us to create those futures.
KOLB LEARNING STYLE INVENTORY
I took the Kolb Learning Style Inventory. I rated at 100% for Active Experimentation and 72% for Abstract Conceptualization. Which is about right, although Abstract Conceptualization should rate even higher. But I rated only 22% for Concrete Experience and 15% for Reflective Observation. These are both definitely too low. So I would say the test is about 75% accurate. They positioned me as DECIDING, where Thinking and Doing converge, which is about right. But I know I have key traits in other sectors of the cycle. So the test is nominal at best. People tend to be more complex that the survey measures. Students should take the results as a general directional indicator not a rigid categorization.
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE SOURCES/RESOURCES
PREMISE: THE WORK OF DAVE, DAVID, THANASSIS (&TIM ?) IS THEIR WORK WEAK SIGNALS/FUTURE SIGNS FOR 2050? THE FUTURE UNDER CONSTRUCTION ?
USE THEIR WORK AS CONCRETE CONTEXTS AND RESOURCES FOR STUDENT TEAM SMESTER PROJECTS.
DRIVING QUESTION: WHAT WOULD IT MEAN FOR LIFE 2050 IN PGH 3.0 TO SCALE UP &BUILD OUT THEIR WORK IN WAYS THAT DEFINE THE PGH 3.0 METRO REGION. (THINK GRAND BUT NOT GRANDIOSE)
TELL THE STORIES (BRING THIS TO LIFE) THROUGH LIFE2050 PERSONA SCENARIOS
(SHOW MY COLOMBIA MARIA SANTOS STORY AS AN EXAMPLE)
(SHOW CI LEARNING 2025 STORY AS AN EXAMPLE)
WE NEED 3 OR 4 MORE “FUTURE UNDER CONSTRUCTION” CONTEXTS
DESIGN LEARNING NETWORK K-12
SEE ALISON CRANE PAPER & ASW MOCKUP OF WEBSITE
IDSA DESIGN LEARNING CHALLENGE
SEE INDEX LEARNING TO IMPROVE LIFE
HEALTH & WELLNESS?
“CITIZENVILLE” BIG DATA & GOVERNANCE.? GAVIN NEWSOME PODCAST
SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION?
SEE “THE STORY OF STUFF”
SEE AUTODESK VIDEOS (GET DAWN DANBY TO DO PRESENTATION)
SEE AL GORE: “THE FUTURE: SIX DRIVERS OF GLOBAL CHANGE”
BRAIN RESEARCH MOONSHOT
SINGULARITY UNIVERSITY (H.G. WELLS’S WORLD MIND?) RAY KURZWEIL
HAVE ED FEIGENBAUM GIVE A LECTURE ON “DESIGN +.TECHNOLOGY +. IDEAS+ =. INNOVATION