Day 8 M 23 Sep – PRESENT PATHWAY CONCEPT 1.0

DAY 8 M 23 SEP                                  AW V. 1.0, 072713

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PRESENT PATHWAY CONCEPT 1.0        

“Plan where you want to go first. Change your plan when you find more interesting places to visit.”          

– Design Wisdom

DRIVING QUESTIONS:

1. What are your pathway preliminary theory of change, vision scenario, method of approach, concepts?

SCHEDULE

4:30-5:00pm EST | TEAM 1 presentation and feedback

5:00 – 5:30pm  EST |TEAM 2 presentation and feedback

5:30 – 6:00pm EST | TEAM 3 presentation and feedback

6:00-6:10pm EST break

6:10-7:00pm: Teams work and meet with instructors

7:00 assignment 8 discussed. All general discussion about the course, student expectations, questions, concerns

7:20pm CLASS ENDS

ASSIGNMENT 8-A

View, browse CMU CREATE LAB & HCII work. Prepare to critique, compare, contrast with other advanced research in interaction design. Prepare to discuss how  CREATE and HCII work might advance, amplify, accelerate, scale innovation in your PGH2050 scenario.

http://remakelearning.org/blog/2013/05/31/kidscreativity-at-2020-a-lunch-learn-with-illah-nourbakhsh/

CREATE LAB:  http://www.cmucreatelab.org/about     http://www.cmucreatelab.org/projects/GigaPan

HCII:   http://www.hcii.cmu.edu/news/stories/engaging-online-crowds-classroom-could-be-important-tool-teaching-innovation

http://www.hcii.cmu.edu/about-hcii

————–
Amy Ogan
————–
http://amyogan.com/——————-
Nikki Kittur

—————
http://kittur.org/
http://www.hcii.cmu.edu/people/faculty/aniket-kittur
http://www.hcii.cmu.edu/research/social-computing-lab
http://www.cognitiveatlas.org/

ASSIGNMENT 8-B

LOCAL PGH HUMAN-CENTERED SCENARIOS GOAL SET  + GLOBAL MEGATREND SCENARIO GOAL SET

 PRELIMINARY IDENTIFY GOAL SETS FOR YOUR TEAM’S FOCUS AREA:

– Five to ten goals for LIFE2050/PGH 3.0

– Five to ten goals derived from Global Megatrend Scenarios … as described below:

In previous classes, we have referred to a number of future scenario maps for two reasons; first, to familiarize students with this aspect of future studies and second so that teams can incorporate global developmental goals into their PGH 3.0 scenarios. If METROPOLITAN REGIONS are the engine of innovation, economic opportunity, education, cultural development, innovation, technology and positive change, then global goals, if they are to be achieved, must be reflected in the strategic development plans of individual metropolitan regions. So it is with PGH 3.0. As teams now proceed to develop their DEXIGN THE FUTURE (DXF) SCENARIOS, we want to focus in on a few GLOBAL SCENARIO maps to use as a source of TOPSIGHT/BIG PICTURE MEGATRENDS and GOAL SET  to backdrop your local PGH3.0 scenarios.

FUTURE SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY

FUTURE SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY

As a model for this method of approach, see p. 13, Methodology, of the GREEN DENMARK 2050 SCENARIOS document. 2050 GREEN DENMARK SCENARIOS  Note that the local Denmark scenarios are based on a number of broad, global future scenarios. Also note the diagram of the FUTURE SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY. We are using this same methodology in our DXF course; i.e.: casting up a NORMATIVE (i.e.: the feasible future we want) vision for life in PGH 3.0. Then we will “Backcast” to the present, hypothesizing the decade by decade milestones required to reach that future and identifying the present day EARLY SIGNALS/FUTURE SIGNS that point toward that future (“The Future Already Here”).

GREEN DENMARK’s scenarios pursue four FOCUS AREAS as most significant in the transition to a green society; i.e: CITIES, BUILDINGS, THE COUNTRY and TRANSPORT.  These focus areas in turn are based on four GLOBAL MEGATRENDS; i.e.: URBANISATION, POPULATION DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH and ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES.

Following this model, our DXF teams have chosen three PGH LOCAL FOCUS AREAS: LEARNPGH, SHAREPGH and DESIGN/LIVE/WORK(?)PGH.

Within these focus areas, teams will develop FORESIGHT vision scenarios  using PERSONA-BASED NARRATIVES. At the same time, teams will re-review FUTURE SCENARIO maps from various international organizations, noting the GLOBAL MEGATREND/PATHWAY GOAL SETS  of these scenarios. From these goals, teams will select a super-set of their own GLOBAL MEGATREND/PATHWAY GOALS  to serve as backdrop reference for their own FOCUS AREA SCENARIOS. Teams should feel free to add METATREND/PATHWAY GOALS you do not find in existing global scenarios that they feel are salient for your own PGH FOCUS AREA GOAL SET.

Following the above description, re-review the following scenario sources for their MEGATREND/PATHWAY GOALS

Some of these organizations, like WBCSD, are sponsored by corporations. Many, like  the European Centre on Sustainable Production and Consumption (CSCP) are intergovernmental consortia.  Others, like the World Economic Forum (WEF) are cross-sector Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) (business, political, academic, etc.). Still others are sector-specific, like the New Media Consortium (NMC). And there are many futures think tanks like Global Business Network (GBN) and Institute For the Future (IFTF).

Most of the GOAL SETS overlap from one organization to the next, with sector-specific differences.

WBCSD VISION 2050.034

WBCSD VISION 2050 PATHWAYS MAP: CLICK ON IMAGE TO VIEW PDF

(1)  World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)  web site:  http://www.wbcsd.org/home.aspx.

Here is a link to membership list: http://www.wbcsd.org/about/members.aspx

Video WBCSD Montreux 2013 Meeting Highlights http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpCrC214lgI.

Four Reasons Why WBCSD VISION 2050  Is Significant http://bit.ly/14SoCKQ

Vision2050 Road Map Implementation Guide

(2) WBCSD VISION 2050 web site http://www.wbcsd.org/vision2050.aspx

Pathway Mural  Vision 2050 Poster  How to use the Pathway Mural   Vision 2050 Poster

WBCSD VISION 2050 Roadmap
WBCSD VISION 2050 Roadmap

(3-a) WBCSD VISION 2050 Report   WBCSD Vision2050-FullReport

(3-b) WBCSD VISION 2050 Summary WBCSD Vision2050-Summary

(4) Collective Invention WBCSD LIFESTYLE 2050 CHARRETTE WORKBOOK

(5) A Roadmap for Vision 2050  http://www.wbcsd.org/Pages/EDocument/EDocumentDetails.aspx?ID=14922&NoSearchContextKey=true

(6) From Vision 2050 to Action 2020 http://www.wbcsd.org/action2020.aspx

(7) Changing Pace http://www.wbcsd.org/changingpace.aspx  

(8) UN MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS  (MDG):  http://bit.ly/184p1fC      In particular view 2013 report on progress toward 2015 MDG Goals: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/report-2013/2013_progress_english.pdf

Re-Review other approaches to future visioning:

IFF THREE HORIZONS GRAPH
IFF THREE HORIZONS GRAPH

– Future Worlds , Wikipedia http://bit.ly/1aliDn6  This is a useful general introduction, but incomplete

– International Futures Forum   http://www.internationalfuturesforum.com/transformative-innovation

– Global Business Network (GBN): View web site:   http://bit.ly/19NnJaP        See in particular this typical GBN report: CLEAN ECOLOGY by Hardin Tibbs: gbn_clean ecology

IFTF KEY DRIVING FORCES
IFTF KEY DRIVING FORCES

– Institute for the Future (IFTF)   IFTF SUSTAINABILITY MAP2 gemi iftf sustainability map8-2-07final http://www.iftf.org/fileadmin/user_upload/images/More_Projects_Images/FoodRetailing.jpg

– World Economic Forum (WEF) Reports on many Megatrend topics:  http://bit.ly/18Q4jEA

– Forum for the Future (FFF) CLIMATE FUTURES SCENARIOS 2030

– New Media Consortium (NMC) : View video athttp://bit.ly/15jMPsM   View K-12 Horizon Report 2013:  NMC 2013-horizon-report-k12 PDF

C. View, browse & prepare to evaluate & discuss other International Organizations for Sustainable Production & Consumption:

– Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) http://www.oecd.org  See in particular Better Life Index:                                                http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org

– Global Footprint Network (GFN): http://bit.ly/19Nl5SF       http://bit.ly/13ZpG50

– Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Production & Consumption (CSPC) EIONET             Browse page at http://scp.eionet.europa.eu/themes    View video  & read page at http://scp.eionet.europa.eu/themes/scp

SPREAD SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES 2050
SPREAD SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES 2050

– SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050  http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu  and   http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/about-the-project.html

View & Browse Scenarios at http://spread2050.ning.com/page/scenarios

View Idea Cards at http://bit.ly/14sWXnx    http://bit.ly/17crSTA

Browse videos at http://spread2050.ning.com/video

REFLECTION  A 

Here is an important example of how to track the trajectory of progress toward milestones along pathways toward long term (2050) environmental goals: Towards a green economy in Europe PDF

EEA Report No 8/2013
Cover ImageThe ‘green economy’ has emerged as a priority in policy debate in recent years. But what does the concept mean in practice and how can decision-makers measure progress towards this strategic goal? This report provides some answers, presenting a detailed overview of the key objectives and targets in EU environmental policy and legislation for the period 2010…2050. It focuses on selected environmental and resource policy areas, specifically: energy; greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ozone-depleting substances; air quality and air pollution; transport sector emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants; waste; water; sustainable consumption and production (SCP); chemicals; biodiversity and land use.

Published by

  • EEA (European Environment Agency)
  • Published: Jul 25, 2013

Content

 REFLECTION B

Here is a paper I wrote about the field generally: “About Scenarios”:  ABOUT SCENARIOS – Arnold Wasserman

STUDENT-CENTERED OUTCOMES: Measurable or Observable Knowledge, Skills, Attributes, Ability to Apply, Interpret, Create, Design, Explain, etc. TBD

OTHER REFERENCES & SOURCES TBD

 

 NOTES

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