DAY 8 M 23 SEP AW V. 1.0, 072713
PRESENT PATHWAY CONCEPT 1.0
“Plan where you want to go first. Change your plan when you find more interesting places to visit.”
– Design Wisdom
1. What are your pathway preliminary theory of change, vision scenario, method of approach, concepts?
4:30-5:00pm EST | TEAM 1 presentation and feedback
5:00 – 5:30pm EST |TEAM 2 presentation and feedback
5:30 – 6:00pm EST | TEAM 3 presentation and feedback
6:00-6:10pm EST break
6:10-7:00pm: Teams work and meet with instructors
7:00 assignment 8 discussed. All general discussion about the course, student expectations, questions, concerns
7:20pm CLASS ENDS
View, browse CMU CREATE LAB & HCII work. Prepare to critique, compare, contrast with other advanced research in interaction design. Prepare to discuss how CREATE and HCII work might advance, amplify, accelerate, scale innovation in your PGH2050 scenario.
CREATE LAB: http://www.cmucreatelab.org/about http://www.cmucreatelab.org/projects/GigaPan
http://snackbot.org/about-public.htmlHollywood vs. Reality
http://newsle.com/article/0/11910962/Interdisciplinary Design for Services, Systems, and Beyond
LOCAL PGH HUMAN-CENTERED SCENARIOS GOAL SET + GLOBAL MEGATREND SCENARIO GOAL SET
PRELIMINARY IDENTIFY GOAL SETS FOR YOUR TEAM’S FOCUS AREA:
– Five to ten goals for LIFE2050/PGH 3.0
– Five to ten goals derived from Global Megatrend Scenarios … as described below:
In previous classes, we have referred to a number of future scenario maps for two reasons; first, to familiarize students with this aspect of future studies and second so that teams can incorporate global developmental goals into their PGH 3.0 scenarios. If METROPOLITAN REGIONS are the engine of innovation, economic opportunity, education, cultural development, innovation, technology and positive change, then global goals, if they are to be achieved, must be reflected in the strategic development plans of individual metropolitan regions. So it is with PGH 3.0. As teams now proceed to develop their DEXIGN THE FUTURE (DXF) SCENARIOS, we want to focus in on a few GLOBAL SCENARIO maps to use as a source of TOPSIGHT/BIG PICTURE MEGATRENDS and GOAL SET to backdrop your local PGH3.0 scenarios.
As a model for this method of approach, see p. 13, Methodology, of the GREEN DENMARK 2050 SCENARIOS document. 2050 GREEN DENMARK SCENARIOS Note that the local Denmark scenarios are based on a number of broad, global future scenarios. Also note the diagram of the FUTURE SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY. We are using this same methodology in our DXF course; i.e.: casting up a NORMATIVE (i.e.: the feasible future we want) vision for life in PGH 3.0. Then we will “Backcast” to the present, hypothesizing the decade by decade milestones required to reach that future and identifying the present day EARLY SIGNALS/FUTURE SIGNS that point toward that future (“The Future Already Here”).
GREEN DENMARK’s scenarios pursue four FOCUS AREAS as most significant in the transition to a green society; i.e: CITIES, BUILDINGS, THE COUNTRY and TRANSPORT. These focus areas in turn are based on four GLOBAL MEGATRENDS; i.e.: URBANISATION, POPULATION DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH and ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES.
Following this model, our DXF teams have chosen three PGH LOCAL FOCUS AREAS: LEARNPGH, SHAREPGH and DESIGN/LIVE/WORK(?)PGH.
Within these focus areas, teams will develop FORESIGHT vision scenarios using PERSONA-BASED NARRATIVES. At the same time, teams will re-review FUTURE SCENARIO maps from various international organizations, noting the GLOBAL MEGATREND/PATHWAY GOAL SETS of these scenarios. From these goals, teams will select a super-set of their own GLOBAL MEGATREND/PATHWAY GOALS to serve as backdrop reference for their own FOCUS AREA SCENARIOS. Teams should feel free to add METATREND/PATHWAY GOALS you do not find in existing global scenarios that they feel are salient for your own PGH FOCUS AREA GOAL SET.
Following the above description, re-review the following scenario sources for their MEGATREND/PATHWAY GOALS
Some of these organizations, like WBCSD, are sponsored by corporations. Many, like the European Centre on Sustainable Production and Consumption (CSCP) are intergovernmental consortia. Others, like the World Economic Forum (WEF) are cross-sector Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) (business, political, academic, etc.). Still others are sector-specific, like the New Media Consortium (NMC). And there are many futures think tanks like Global Business Network (GBN) and Institute For the Future (IFTF).
Most of the GOAL SETS overlap from one organization to the next, with sector-specific differences.
(1) World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) web site: http://www.wbcsd.org/home.aspx.
Here is a link to membership list: http://www.wbcsd.org/about/members.aspx
Video WBCSD Montreux 2013 Meeting Highlights http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpCrC214lgI.
Four Reasons Why WBCSD VISION 2050 Is Significant http://bit.ly/14SoCKQ
(2) WBCSD VISION 2050 web site http://www.wbcsd.org/vision2050.aspx
(3-a) WBCSD VISION 2050 Report WBCSD Vision2050-FullReport
(3-b) WBCSD VISION 2050 Summary WBCSD Vision2050-Summary
(5) A Roadmap for Vision 2050 http://www.wbcsd.org/Pages/EDocument/EDocumentDetails.aspx?ID=14922&NoSearchContextKey=true
(6) From Vision 2050 to Action 2020 http://www.wbcsd.org/action2020.aspx
(7) Changing Pace http://www.wbcsd.org/changingpace.aspx
(8) UN MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDG): http://bit.ly/184p1fC In particular view 2013 report on progress toward 2015 MDG Goals: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/report-2013/2013_progress_english.pdf
Re-Review other approaches to future visioning:
– International Futures Forum http://www.internationalfuturesforum.com/transformative-innovation
– World Economic Forum (WEF) Reports on many Megatrend topics: http://bit.ly/18Q4jEA
– Forum for the Future (FFF) CLIMATE FUTURES SCENARIOS 2030
C. View, browse & prepare to evaluate & discuss other International Organizations for Sustainable Production & Consumption:
– Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) http://www.oecd.org See in particular Better Life Index: http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org
– Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Production & Consumption (CSPC) EIONET Browse page at http://scp.eionet.europa.eu/themes View video & read page at http://scp.eionet.europa.eu/themes/scp
– SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu and http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/about-the-project.html
View & Browse Scenarios at http://spread2050.ning.com/page/scenarios
Browse videos at http://spread2050.ning.com/video
Here is an important example of how to track the trajectory of progress toward milestones along pathways toward long term (2050) environmental goals: Towards a green economy in Europe PDF
- EEA (European Environment Agency)
- Published: Jul 25, 2013
- Towards a green economy in Europe.pdf [4.9 MB].
Here is a paper I wrote about the field generally: “About Scenarios”: ABOUT SCENARIOS – Arnold Wasserman
STUDENT-CENTERED OUTCOMES: Measurable or Observable Knowledge, Skills, Attributes, Ability to Apply, Interpret, Create, Design, Explain, etc. TBD
OTHER REFERENCES & SOURCES TBD